Some view that the birth of the Kashmir conflict is when the tribes from Pakistan invaded it. The birth of the Kashmiri problem is born in my point of view is - when the National conference meet turned into conflict and the conflicting factions walked out and revived the old Muslim conference. So I would answer from two perspectives.
- What if the Pakistani tribesmen never invaded Kashmir? If it didn't happen then Kashmir would have been a princely state for some more years. While the Muslim conference, Kishan union etc wanted Kashmir to join Pakistan, the National conference was the only party to oppose it. So sooner or later it would have become a part of Pakistan or been another Nepal or Bhutan in the subcontinent (independent states).
2. What if the tribes invaded Kashmir and India denied to help them? If India didn’t accept the request of Maharaja Hari Singh to defend Kashmir from tribal invaders, Kashmir would have got completely annexed by Pakistan. In this scenario, India would have been without Kashmir.
Now coming to the original question.
If there wasn't a Kashmir issue the subcontinent would have enjoyed both pros & cons if Kashmir wasn’t a part of India.
PROS :
- INDIA PAKISTAN RIVALRY: After the partition of British India, the first clash between India & Pakistan made its way when India defended Kashmir from the tribal invaders. Then India denied giving the second installment of treasury share to Pakistan due to the aggression of Pakistan on Kashmir. Then the clash evolved into an Assailant. Later the conflicts intensified it led to serious wars in 1965, 1971 & the Kargil war. If Kashmir wasn’t annexed by India, then India would have not faced these wars to be precise. Kashmir's problem was the base reason for every problem created from the Pakistani side to India. So at least 50% of conflicts between India & Pakistan would have been stopped if Kashmir wasn’t a part of India. There would have been chances for friendship between two brothers. And the dream of Gandhiji & MA Jinnah would have come true.
- INDIA CHINA RIVALRY: Aksai Chin(Part of Kashmir) & Arunachal Pradesh(so-called South Tibet) acted as a catalyst for the Sino Indian war. If Kashmir wasn’t a part of India there would have been one reason less for the war. However, the rift between India & China was intensified when Pakistan started using China to counter India. According to point one if India had less rivalry with Pakistan, then they would have never used China to counter India. India would have not acted against China in the South China Sea issue. China would have not opposed India’s entry in any stuffs(eg NSG) & vice versa. (with the help of point 4 as well).
- TERRORISM: India would have never faced terrorist organizations like Let, IM & JeM. There might be problems with Naxals & other NE Indian terror groups but India would have been safe. Kashmiri militants & Pakistan sponsored terrorists have been conducting deadly attacks in India. Kashmir based Jihadi groups conduct 80% of deadly attacks. If Kashmir wasn’t a part of India, then India would have free from these horrors. This would have been the greatest of all.
- ECONOMY: J&K gets 10% of Central funds with only 1% of the population. India has been spending 10 times more on Kashmir than it does for other states for the last 70 YEARS. Despite the lack of infrastructure & the lack of good medical facilities, India spends a lot on Kashmir every year. If Kashmir wasn’t a part of India, then India would have used this money for some other things. Not only these funds. India spends a lot on army & arms. India spends a huge amount every year to develop nuclear weapons. Even many experts accuse India of this. If there is no terror or threat of Pakistan, India would have used this money to build its nation. So in the absence of Kashmir, India would have used this bulk amount in a constructive way to build the rest of India. India’s infrastructure & famine mitigation would have been better(but reducing corruption would have been a challenge). India is now a 2 trillion economy. Just imagine how the economy of India would have been if India uses this money for the nation.
CONS :
- India uses the waters of the Indus & its tributaries for construction purposes(for example Baglihar Dam, Kishenganga Dam etc). India would have missed it.
- Bangladesh would have never got the support of India for its independence if India & Pakistan were allies.
- Religious conflicts in Kashmir: Muslims under the rule of Hari Singh were prosecuted. This might have led to the birth of Communalism in Kashmir just like India & Pakistan.
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